Broker Check

Where the U.S. Economy is Headed: A Look at the Data

A Coming Recession by chris@kilmerco.com

References

Yellow Trucking Company

  • https://www.forbes.com/sites/anafaguy/2023/07/31/why-yellow-trucking-company-is-shutting-down/?sh=1a56f7723970
  • https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/future-of-freight-in-question-after-trucking-company-yellow-files-for-bankruptcy
  • https://cdllife.com/2023/yellow-makes-it-official-files-the-largest-bankruptcy-in-the-history-of-u-s-trucking/

Production

  • Real Gross Domestic Production growth rate - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA#0
  • Manufacturing purchases for 2008 - https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/business-confidence
  • Manufacturing purchases for 2021 - https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/manufacturing-pmi-829
  • Durable goods orders - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGORDER
  • Commodity prices - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PALLFNFINDEXQ
  • Business conditions of manufacturers - https://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/empiresurvey_overview.html
  • Manufacturers sentiment - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BSCICP02USM460S
  • Profit of corporations - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CP/#0
  • Employment rate - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LREM64TTUSM156S

Consumption

  • Retail sales - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RSXFS/
  • Consumer sentiment - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT/
  • Tons of goods moved by trucks - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TRUCKD11
  • Tons of goods moved by trucks - https://www.truckinginfo.com/10149977/truck-tonnage-index-falls-in-july

Debt

  • Government debt - https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/historical-debt-outstanding/historical-debt-outstanding
  • Corporate debt - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BCNSDODNS
  • Household debt - https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc.html
  • Interest rates - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/fedfunds
  • Bank lending standards for borrowers - a

Cost of goods and services

  • Consumer Price Index - https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm

Housing market

  • Housing starts - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST
  • Existing home sales for 2007 - https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/data/existing-home-sales
  • Housing sentiment - https://www.nahb.org/News-and-Economics/Housing-Economics/Indices/Housing-Market-Index

Other Indicators

  • Real Disposable Personal Income Per American - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A229RX0#0
  • 10 year/ 3 month Treasury Spread - https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/powells-curve-plunges-new-lows-flashing-us-recession-warning-2023-04-06/
  • 10 year/ 3 month Treasury Spread - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M/
  • Conference Board Leading Economic Index - https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators
  • Debt defaults of corporations - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-issuer-defaults-sandp-idUSTRE4AG6PC20081117
  • Debt defaults of corporations - https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/global-corporate-defaults-highest-since-the-pandemic-in-2020/ar-AA1a0NNd
  • Corporate bankruptcies - https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/us-corporate-bankruptcies-tick-up-in-may-year-to-date-total-highest-since-2010-75997788
  • Corporate bankruptcies - https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualized-u-s-corporate-bankruptcies-on-the-rise/
  • Oil prices - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POILBREUSDM

Why Hasn't the Government Announced a Recession?

  • https://mises.org/wire/why-official-data-shows-theres-no-recession

A Look at the Global Economy

  • Eurozone in recession - https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/08/economy/eurozone-recession/index.html
  • Eurozone in recession - https://youtu.be/2RZdsCjf-KQ
  • New Zealand recession - https://www.seattletimes.com/business/new-zealands-economy-dips-into-recession-as-higher-interest-rates-bite/
  • New Zealand recession - https://youtu.be/VAAH-GxU05M
  • Russian recession - https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/01/business/russia-economy-sanctions/index.html
  • China - https://youtu.be/R2SOVntsLaA
  • China - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svvz6YaBefY
  • Chinese exports plummeting - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GqnCEO9oMbk
  • Chinese exports plummeting - https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/chinas-exports-tumble-in-may-as-global-demand-falters/ar-AA1cgtTg
  • https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/the-freight-recession-rocks-global-shipping-fueling-a-75-plunge-in-container-rates/ar-AA1eAFMw?cvid=976b0f88e5404119f18693cbacb2bb5d&ocid=winp2fptaskbar&ei=4



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